After a sensational season opener in Vancouver and an action-packed double-header in Perth, the final event of the year will crown the 2024 FIM World Supercross champions and so, results at the WSX Abu Dhabi GP will play a huge part in the story of the season.

The stage has been set by the opening three rounds of the 2024 FIM World Supercross Championship, and the title protagonists now know what they must do to secure the crown. But that also presents a golden opportunity for those who haven’t yet shone in 2024; while the championship hopefuls might play it safe, they’ll have nothing to lose.

With just one round remaining, who might continue a dominant streak and who could snatch a surprise win in the twilight of the 2024 season?

Eli Tomac: Having won 10 of the first 12 WSX races in 2024 – including a clean sweep 1-1-1-1 at Round 2 in Perth – Eli Tomac is very much the in-form rider, and the one they’re all hoping to beat in the final four at Etihad Arena. The American rider has won races by as much as 20 seconds this season, cementing his reputation as one of the greatest supercross talents of all time.

He could be at a disadvantage for Round 4 though, with the rest of the top contenders this season having experienced the venue during the 2023 Abu Dhabi GP, potentially giving them the upper hand.

With 46 points separating himself and double champion Ken Roczen, Tomac has one hand on the 2024 WSX crown, but he still has to get the job done in Abu Dhabi. The #3 rider isn’t one to crumble under pressure, but if he were to let nerves get the better of him it could open the door for any of our other candidates to take the win.

Ken Roczen: As one of only two riders to beat Tomac to a race win in 2024, the reigning WSX champion Ken Roczen is another contender for victory at the season finale. Having gone without a round win this season, WSX’s most decorated rider will undoubtedly be hungry to go out on top in Abu Dhabi, as he has done so often in the past. It goes without saying that Ken will do everything he can to deny Tomac from stealing his crown.

With Tomac focused on securing a maiden WSX title, there could be an opening for the reigning two-time champion to take risks the American dare not. Although a lowly 14th-place finish meant Roczen finished off the overall podium at the 2023 Abu Dhabi event, the German rider showed he had good pace at Etihad Arena by taking a win and third in the other races. Those results could give him the confidence he needs to take the fight to Tomac in the 2024 finale.

Joey Savatgy: The threat Joey Savatgy poses is as real as ever in 2024. Having finished second to Roczen for the past two seasons, there’s a sense the American has something to prove this year.

That fact was especially true at Round 3, when Savatgy went fastest in practice, finished second to Tomac in SuperPole, chased the CDR Yamaha Supported by Star Racing rider to the line in Race 1 and finally ended his dominant run in Race 2 to take a first race victory of the season.

Being the last rider to beat Tomac, and the only one to do so in Perth, isn’t the only thing to play in Savatgy’s favour heading to the season finale. The Fire Power Honda rider claimed his second WSX victory at the 2023 Abu Dhabi round, so he goes into this year’s event as the man to beat at Etihad Arena.

Shane McElrath: Like Tomac in the 450cc category, Shane McElrath has made the 250cc class his own in 2024, almost matching his compatriot’s dominance by taking nine wins from 12 starts this season.

Unlike the WSX champion-elect, the SX2 title hopeful did take part in last year’s visit to Abu Dhabi, but he’ll be trying not to think about his past results at Etihad Arena; in 2023 he went 8-8-11 and ninth overall. If he’s to retain his advantage in the points, he’s going to need to be firing on all cylinders at this year’s final round.

A 57-point gap separates McElrath and the chasing SX2 pack, so he has everything to lose in Abu Dhabi. That’s known territory for the Fire Power Honda man though, having claimed the 2022 title in a tense showdown.

Coty Schock: After two podiums in Race 2 and the SuperFinal of Vancouver, Coty Schock turned up the wick in Perth to take two individual race victories and become the only full-time rider to best McElrath in 2024.

Yes, the mistakes are still there. He’s crashed in each of the three rounds of the campaign so far, but perhaps the incentive of the last overall win of 2024 will be enough to spur the Rick Ware Racing rider on to victory in Abu Dhabi. A lack of experience at Etihad Arena may work against him, but at the same time a fresh approach could be just what he needs to overcome the likes of McElrath.

Enzo Lopes: A string of seven podiums in Perth – only interrupted by a Race 3 crash on Sunday – and two more at the opening round in Vancouver have thrust Enzo Lopes into contention at the top of the SX2 table. The Brazilian has certainly lived up to his reputation this season, after finishing on the podium in his class debut in 2023, but as with many of the riders in this list, hasn’t previously raced in Abu Dhabi. His consistency has certainly been impressive during this campaign, but he’ll have to pull something more out of the bag if he’s to fight for the top step at Etihad Arena.

Cole Thompson: The Canadian hotshot Cole Thompson could be touted as a winner in Abu Dhabi on his 2024 scorecard alone, but the Fire Power Honda rider has one advantage over his rivals that can’t be understated; of this year’s front-runners, Thompson was the highest placed finisher in last year’s Abu Dhabi event in fourth. That, coupled with his form this season – third overall in Vancouver and consistent top fives in Perth – mean Thompson is a viable threat for honours in this year’s season finale.