When Red Bull GasGas factory rider, Jorge Prado came into the 2024 MXGP championship, he was not only the defending champion, but he was also in a class of his own. He started the season by winning the opening four GPs with 1-2-1-1-1-1-3-1 and holding a 13-point lead over HRC rider Tim Gajser. Gajser had also started strong, but his GP’s consisted of a bunch of second place finishes and amazingly, just one Sunday moto win and one Saturday moto win. But with eight 2nd places, he was a lot closer to the red plate than anyone could imagine.

Since those first four round rounds, Prado has still done well, winning in round six in Spain, round eight in Germany and also round 11 in Indonesia. So, from 13 rounds, he has won more than half and has at times looked just as good as early in the season.

The problem with the Spaniard though, he has very poor performances in the mud and rain of Portugal and France and then was involved in a crash in Maggiora, which was no fault of his own, but saw him get a DNF and zero points.

Now, you cannot count bad luck as anything other than part of racing, but had Prado not had that DNF, and scored a top three, the deficit to series leader Gajser would be just a handful of points and you can be sure, the GasGas rider is hanging onto that as his motivation.

In both Indonesian rounds and Loket last weekend, Prado looked solid, going 2-2-1-4-4-5-2-2-2 in the six motos run, including the Saturday qualifiers, so it isn't like he is off form. Now, that is far from bad performances, yet he still has looked a little under form, compared to his red-hot opening four rounds. When we talked to Prado after his Lombok I victory, he was sure his speed is still better than Gajser and Herlings, but he needs a better track to race on.

“I mean,” Prado told us in Indonesia. “It’s close when we have mud races. I mean, it’s a mud race because these guys put so much water on the track and then it gets closer. I feel in dry conditions, there is still some gap. Look for example myself in Lugo, with dry conditions, in the qualification race, from P6 or something, I went and won the moto. Passing all these guys in front in the championship and the ones in the back, so, no. For sure there isn’t a big gap, Tim, Jeffrey and I are pretty similar. One guy is riding better in mud conditions another guy is riding better in dry and rutty another guy might be better when its more slippery and that makes it fun for the spectators.”

I tipped Prado to win in Loket, because he has won there more times than anyone else and his beautiful throttle control seems to have a big advantage at a place like Loket. He has also won more times at Lommel, than Herlings and Gajser and while I am tipping Herlings to win Lommel, do not be surprised if Prado goes out and finishes 1-1-1 for the weekends work and is again, right on the tail pipe of Gajser in the points.

Prado remains super confident and, in his head, still feels he is the fastest of the big three and will sooner rather than later, be the red plate man and the 2024 MXGP World champion. Loket, he beat Gajser in the opening moto and Herlings in moto two, but that 2-2 performance still makes he feel as if he can once again score a GP win and Lommel would be a good place to start.

"A solid weekend overall you could say - with three P2 finishes. Starting from Saturday I just tried to stay consistent. I was struggling a little bit on this track with traction because I’m quite light, but I tried my best and gave it my all, and I think we came away with the best result we could this weekend. I felt ok in the second moto, my start was good but then I just made a mistake with the line and Tim [Gajser] got past me. It’s important to grab points for the championship; I want to catch up - but it is what it is. We’ve got some sand races coming up - I’ve been putting in training time on the sand, so it should be good. I’m looking forward to Lommel, and to make a good bounce back!”

Now, into Lommel, where Prado has won 2017, 2018, 2020 and will be more than fired up to hand both the HRC and KTM riders their asses. There is no doubt, the beautiful technique of Prado will be out in full force around the very difficult sand circuit. With Herlings and Gajser winning the last two GPs and Gajser pulling away in the points and Herlings catching up, the defending World champion needs to fire in Belgium and show the two five-time World champions that he isn’t any less the rider from those first four rounds.