As the only double-header event on the 2024 schedule, the WSX Australian GP is arguably the most important event of the season for the FIM World Supercross Championship. With not one, but two rounds taking place over one single weekend, twice as many points are up for grabs, and as the last event before WSX’s season finale, it presents a critical window of opportunity for riders to secure their place as title contenders in Abu Dhabi.

But after the season-opening WSX Canadian GP in Vancouver, who is heading to HBF Park in Perth in the hot seat? This is your form guide for the WSX Australian GP.

After a dominant showing at BC Place, Eli Tomac heads to Perth as the rider to beat in the premier WSX 450cc class. When it was announced that Tomac would be competing on a full-time basis in WSX in 2024, it was clear that he was the rider who could take the fight to Ken Roczen, and in Canada, he showed that that was the case.

While Roczen beat Tomac to win GP Race 1, it turned out that the eight-time AMA motocross and supercross champion was, in fact, in a league of his own in Vancouver and that was reflected by his near-perfect 2-1-1-1 record over the night.

Tomac’s WSX Canadian GP highlights included a mind-bending 22-second winning margin over Joey Savatgy in GP Race 2, and a SuperFinal victory, despite running with a rear puncture. At this stage, it’s tough to look past Tomac for Perth. He’ll be a contender.

There’s a reason why Ken Roczen is a two-time WSX World Champion, and after emerging as Tomac’s closest competitor in Canada, the German racer will definitely be in the mix in Perth.

Roczen left Vancouver feeling disappointed, and there’s no denying that, but when looking at how his night unfolded, he staged what can only be described as a very strong recovery.

After winning GP Race 1, Roczen made a rare mistake in GP Race 2 which relegated him to 11th, and from then on out, his goal switched from taking the overall win to salvaging what was left of the evening.

With a pair of second place finishes in GP Race 3 and in the SuperFinal, Roczen was able to beat Savatgy to the overall runner-up spot, finishing as close as he possibly could to Tomac. But Roczen isn’t in WSX to be the runner-up. He’s in it to win it. Roczen is Tomac’s closest rival right now, and in Perth, he wants to beat him. Eli vs Ken has only just started, and it’s certain to continue.

Joey Savatgy finished on the overall podium in Canada, and given he was racing with a new team, riding a new bike, and racing supercross for the first time in almost 12 months, he left feeling content with the result.

But as a two-time vice champion in the series, Savatgy was more than honest about WSX’s current running order, and by his own admission, acknowledged that he had work to do to bridge the gap between himself and Tomac and Roczen.

The break between Vancouver and Perth will have been a blessing for Savatgy, and with more time to prepare and refine his performance, he should be closer to the mark for Australia.

Given their form in Vancouver, Colt Nichols and Vince Friese fit into the ‘dark horse’ category with relative ease, and looking at their performances, it’s simple to understand why.

In his own words, Nichols described his weekend in Canada as being better than anything else he was able to achieve in WSX last season. Fourth overall is the highest we’ve ever seen him.

Nichols has the hunger, he has the confidence to push forward, and has the makings of a WSX race winner if he can challenge at the top positions more regularly. Vince Friese is in a similar position to Nichols and was at his best in Canada. He was on the pace, won the holeshot in GP Race 1, and was at the front for most of the evening.

Starting well and defending is Friese’s game. He knows it, and he’s good at it – it’s the reason it’s often worked out so well for him in past seasons. If the MotoConcepts rider can be at the front from the start in Perth, and this time, maintain position, he could easily find himself in the hunt.

2022 SX2 World Champion, Shane McElrath, was a prime candidate for the 2024 title heading into the season-opener, so when the native of Canton, North Carolina, only managed seventh in GP Race 1 in Canada, it came as a bit of a shock.

But it was just a blip. From GP Race 2 onwards, McElrath demonstrated that he’s riding at the top of his game by delivering a near-perfect evening with a 7-1-1-1 record. In Vancouver, he was a dominant force, and even reigning SX2 champion, Max Anstie, struggled to match him, yet there was something oddly familiar to the whole saga.

In 2023’s season-opener, the story was the same. McElrath was on top after dominating in Birmingham, yet tough outings in Abu Dhabi and Melbourne meant that his path to a second championship title crumbled beneath his very feet.

Yet as our most recent SX2 winner, and as a proven title winner, McElrath can’t be ruled out for Perth, and given his current form, he will likely be a contender for victory once again.

Last season, McElrath’s Fire Power Honda team-mate for 2024, Cole Thompson, showed the world that he has the speed to race at the front in WSX. In Vancouver, he did that yet again. Coming into the WSX Australian GP, Thompson holds third in the SX2 Riders’ Standings, but given Anstie’s Wildcard status, the Canadian is now, in practice, McElrath’s closest title challenger.

Thompson has the talent and has shown on countless occasions that he has the consistency. Perth is the perfect time for him to press forward to finally contend for an overall SX2 victory.

Enzo Lopes is a generational talent and impressed everyone at the WSX Canadian GP by displaying what can only be described as a clinically consistent masterclass. The Brazilian was never outside of the top five, and while many riders tired, Lopes was one of very few competitors who got better and improved as the night advanced.

His 5-5-2-2 record from Vancouver was strong, but given that the weekend marked his competitive return to supercross after sitting on the sidelines for most of 2024, his performance was borderline impressive.

Heading to Perth, Lopes evidently has momentum, and if fourth overall is what he was able to achieve on his comeback, what can he do at HBF Park?

Coty Schock was a close match to his Rick Ware Racing team-mate, Lopes, in Vancouver, and without a spectacular accident while running in second in GP Race 3, he likely would have finished on the SX2 podium. But that was Canada, and that’s in the past. The WSX Australian GP is his next challenge.

At this stage of the season, declaring that Schock is one of the fastest riders on the SX2 grid is an accurate statement that few would dare to contest, but he needs to iron out the mistakes. If Shock can match his speed from BC Place, run smoothly, and be at the front consistently, he can be a prime candidate for victory in rounds two and three.